Wednesday, September 21, 2005

UTOPIA Take Rate

According to Light Reading, the UTOPIA project has signed up only 500 customers out of the 5,000 to 8,000 currently reached by the network. Light Reading seems to think that's a bad thing.

According to the UTOPIA project's website, they began construction in 2004. And according to my math, 500 out of 5,000 to 8,000 is somewhere between 6.25% and 10%.

So for an access network that's less than two years after start of construction, they've captured between 6% and 10% of what the cablecos call "homes passed".

In terms of comparison, to pick a cableco at random, Comcast was selling Comcast @Home in 1999 (and maybe earlier - that's just the earliest Comcast press release I can find that refers to internet service), and as of 2Q05 - six or more years later - was at 18.9% of homes passed.

So 6%-10% penetration really doesn't seem that bad.

Their feasibility study indicates that they've got three years to hit 10% penetration for breakeven, and only need to get up to 25%-30% in years 4+ to stay at breakeven. Personally, I wouldn't be that negative on 6%-10% in year two.

Thursday, September 15, 2005

Sprint WiMax, Bro

Broadband Reports picks up on a Yonhap News blurb that Samsung will provide WiBro equipment to Sprint-Nextel for a trial. (I haven't seen an announcement from either Samsung or Sprint-Nextel.) Update: Sprint-Nextel has an announcement out.

Sprint-Nextel has previously trialed Flarion (now Qualcomm) FLASH-OFDM equipment and IPWireless TD-CDMA equipment, and has announced trials of Motorola WiMAX equipment.

There would not seem to be a great match between the 2.3 GHz spectrum that WiBro typically operates in and the 2.5 GHz BRS/EBS spectrum that Sprint-Nextel has so much of, but the same could probably be said for FLASH-OFDM and TD-CDMA.

If I had to guess, I'd guess that Sprint-Nextel will use the trial to look more at the mobility aspects of broadband wireless technologies than the WiBro radio technology per se.

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Internet Bubble 2.0

What's the difference between Internet Bubble 2.0 and Internet Bubble 1.0?

In Internet Bubble 2.0, eBay is rumored to be in talks to buy Skype, a company which some have estimated to have revenues in the neighborhood of $70M, for between $2B and $3B.

In Internet Bubble 1.0, Skype would have bought SBC.